Distressed Sales Remain a Concern

Twenty-nine percent of recent buyers purchased a home in foreclosure or through a short sale, according to the latest REALTORS® Confidence Index. REALTORS® who participated in the survey are also concerned about a growing number of foreclosures and the hurdles buyers face in short sales.

The RCI is a key indicator of housing market strength based on a monthly survey of more than 50,000 REALTORS®; in a typical month there are more than 3,000 usable responses. Practitioners are asked about their expectations for home sales, prices, and market conditions; they also share their insights regarding buyer preferences and financing options and how those factors are influencing real estate markets nationwide.

“REALTORS® are on the front lines with buyers and sellers in today’s market and have valuable insights into real estate trends,” NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® President Charles McMillan said. “The volume of distressed sales that our members are reporting underscores the importance of the recent tax credit extension. By putting cash in the hands of financially healthy home buyers, the credit will continue to help draw down inventory and stabilize home prices to encourage a strong and sustainable housing recovery.”

Despite the high volume of distressed sales, REALTORS® report that their buyers encounter various challenges associated with these types of sales. Buyers who present a short sale offer can wait months before hearing whether their offer will be accepted. In addition, REALTORS® are also seeing increased competition for foreclosed properties, and multiple bids are sometimes driving sales prices over list prices.

Aside from the demand for short sales and foreclosed homes, today’s buyers are increasingly interested in a home’s energy efficiency and proximity to transportation corridors, reflecting concerns about rising energy costs. Many REALTORS® are seeing a growing preference among buyers for smaller homes, as people look to downsize and cut expenses.

Mortgages insured by the Federal Housing Administration are the primary lending vehicle for many buyers; 24 percent of recent buyers used an FHA loan to finance their purchase. However, more than one in five recent buyers—21 percent—paid all cash.

Source: NAR

New Rules to Clarify Fees

New regulations from the Department of Housing and Urban Development will require that closing costs be spelled out on a revised and consumer-friendly version of the good-faith estimate form that borrowers are supposed to receive within three days of applying for a mortgage. These rules will take effect Jan. 1, 2010.

Fees are divided into three categories:

• Fees that cannot increase from upfront estimates to closing, including lender or broker's mortgage origination, processing, and underwriting charges, as well as lender or broker’s “points” based on the interest rate quoted and local transfer taxes.
• Fees that can increase as much as 10 percent from upfront estimates, including services such as appraisals, title insurance, and recording fees from local governments.
• Fees that can increase without limit because the amount is difficult to predict in advance, including home owners insurance, daily interest charges on the loan, and initial deposits by the borrower into an escrow account.

Refinancing Fuels Loan Activity

Loan applications rose 8.2 percent last week on a seasonally adjusted basis compared to the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association weekly survey.

Most of the increase was in refinances, which rose 14.5 percent, while purchases decreased 1.8 percent. On an unadjusted basis, the purchase index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was down 3.4 percent compared to the same week a year ago.

Mortgage rates declined overall:

• 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.97 percent from 5.04 percent.
• 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.33 percent from 4.53 percent.
• 1-year ARMs increased to 6.83 percent from 6.79 percent.

Voluntary Loan Defaults Are on the Rise

Voluntary foreclosures are challenging the government’s $75 billion effort to keep troubled and underwater borrowers in their homes.

About 588,000 borrowers walked away in 2008, twice the number in 2007, according to a study by credit management firm Experian and management consultants Oliver Wyman. Many more are expected to walk away, hampering the real estate recovery, economists say.

The mortgage unit of Citigroup says one in five borrowers defaults willingly, even though they're able to pay the mortgage.

"It's increasingly a more important factor driving the foreclosure crisis," says Mark Zandi, of Moody's Economy.com. "As we move forward, the job market will stabilize, and the big thing will be strategic defaults. People are going to determine it doesn't make financial sense to hold on to their homes. That's going to be a significant problem. Strategic defaults mean foreclosures could be high for a long time."

Source: USA Today, Stephanie Armour (11/3/2009)

Pending Home Sales Continue to Rise

Pending home sales rose again, marking eight consecutive monthly gains – the longest streak since measurement began in 2001, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

The Pending Home Sales Index,^* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in September, rose 6.1 percent to 110.1 from a reading of 103.8 in August, and is 21.2 percent higher than September 2008 when it stood at 90.9.

The gain from a year ago is the largest annual increase on record, and the index is at the highest level since December 2006 when it was 112.8.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the momentum is understandable.
“What we’re witnessing is a rush of first-time buyers trying to beat the expiration of the tax credit at the end of this month,” he said. “Home values will stabilize sooner rather than over-correcting. That, in turn, will mean wealth stabilization for the vast number of middle-class families and lay the foundation for a durable economic recovery.”

NAR estimates approximately 3 million renters are now financially well-qualified to buy a median-priced home. “As long as buyers do not overstretch and stay well within their budget, a sizable pent-up demand can be tapped among financially qualified potential buyers,” Yun said. “Although the tax credit is greatly reviving the existing home market, new-home sales may continue to struggle as home builders hold back production to drive down inventory. In addition, there remains an ongoing credit crunch for construction loans.”

The Pending Home Sales Index in the Northeast slipped 2.0 percent to 83.6 in September but remains 16.9 percent above September 2008. In the Midwest the index rose 8.1 percent to 98.2 in September and is 17.8 percent higher than a year ago. In the South, pending home sales increased 4.9 percent to an index of 109.7 and is 22.8 percent above September 2008. In the West the index jumped 10.2 percent to 143.8 and is 23.7 percent above a year ago.

Yun added that strong near-term reports should not be overstated. “We’re clearly not out of the woods because an excess of homes remains on the market despite recent improvements,” he said. “Although current inventory is getting closer to price equilibrium, foreclosures will continue to enter the pipeline. An extended and expanded tax credit would help absorb this incoming inventory.”

— NAR

Obama Signs Extended Tax Credit into Law

Expected to contribute approximately $22 billion to the economy, Congress overwhelmingly passed a bipartisan measure this week extending the $8,000 home buyer tax credit to April 30, 2010.

The legislation, which is part of a larger bill that also extends unemployment benefits, was signed into law by President Obama today.

More people are now eligible to take advantage of the law, which includes a $6,500 tax credit for buyers who are current home owners and have lived in their home for five of the past eight years.

Income limits for eligible home buyers were also expanded to $125,000 for single buyers and $225,000 for couples, up from $75,000 for individuals and $150,000 for couples. Qualifying home prices are capped at $800,000.

Sen. Johnny Isakson, a Georgia Republican and a former member of NAR, was key in extending the credit, as well as pushing it through initially. Other prominent boosters include the National Association of Homebuilders and the Mortgage Bankers Association.

NAR economists estimate that approximately 2 million people will take advantage of the tax credit this year.

Sources: NAR and The Associated Press, Julie Hirschfeld Davis (11/06/2009)