Strong Gain in Existing-Home Sales

For the first time in five years, existing-home sales have increased for four months in a row, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – rose 7.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.24 million units in July from a level of 4.89 million in June. Sales are 5.0 percent above the 4.99 million-unit pace in July 2008. The last time sales rose for four consecutive months was in June 2004, and the last time sales were higher than a year earlier was November 2005.

Largest Gain in a Decade

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said he is encouraged. “The housing market has decisively turned for the better. A combination of first-time buyers taking advantage of the housing stimulus tax credit and greatly improved affordability conditions are contributing to higher sales,” he said.

The monthly sales gain was the largest on record for the total existing-home sales series dating back to 1999.

“Because price-to-income ratios have fallen below historical trends, there are more all-cash offers. In some recovering markets like San Diego, Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Orlando, the demand for foreclosed and lower-priced homes has spiked, and a lack of inventory is becoming a common complaint,” Yun said.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 5.22 percent in July from 5.42 percent in June. The rate was 6.43 percent in July 2008.

"First-Time Buyer Tax Credit is Working"

An NAR practitioner survey showed first-time buyers purchased 30 percent of homes in July, and that distressed homes accounted for 31 percent of transactions. NAR President Charles McMillan said the first-time buyer tax credit is working. “In addition to first-time buyers, we’re also seeing increased activity by repeat buyers. While many entry-level buyers are focused on the discounted prices of distressed homes, they’re also freeing some existing owners to sell and make a move,” he said.

“Realtors are the best resource for consumers in these changing market conditions because the transaction process has become more complex. Since it’s now taking longer to complete a home sale, first-time buyers who want to take advantage of the $8,000 tax credit should try to make contract offers by the end of September,” McMillan said. “Otherwise, they may miss the November 30 closing deadline.”

Inventory Up, Prices Down

Total housing inventory at the end of July rose 7.3 percent to 4.09 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.4-month supply at the current sales pace, which was unchanged from June because of the strong sales gain. Raw inventory totals are 10.6 percent lower than a year ago when the number of unsold homes was at a record.

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $178,400 in July, which is 15.1 percent lower than July 2008. Distressed properties continue to weigh down the median price because they typically sell for 15 to 20 percent less than traditional homes.

Single-Family Homes and Condos

Single-family home sales increased 6.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.61 million in July from a pace of 4.33 million in June, and are 5.0 percent higher than the 4.39 million-unit level in July 2008. The median existing single-family home price was $178,300 in July, which is 14.6 percent below a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales jumped 12.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 630,000 units in July from 560,000 in June, and are 5.9 percent above the 595,000-unit level a year ago. The median existing condo price was $178,800 in July, down 18.9 percent from July 2008.

By Region:

• The Northeast surged 13.4 percent to an annual pace of 930,000 in July, and are 3.3 percent higher than July 2008. The median price in the Northeast was $236,700, down 15.0 percent from a year ago.
• Existing-home sales in the Midwest jumped 10.9 percent in July to a level of 1.22 million and are 8.0 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $157,200, which is 5.9 percent less than July 2008.
• In the South, existing-home sales rose 7.1 percent to an annual pace of 1.95 million in July and are 5.4 percent higher than July 2008. The median price in the South was $164,500, down 7.1 percent from a year ago.
• Existing-home sales in the West slipped 1.7 percent to an annual rate of 1.13 million in July, but are 1.8 percent above a year ago. The median price in the West was $202,300, which is 28.0 percent below July 2008.

Buyers Rush to Beat Tax Credit Deadline

Real estate professionals report that first-time home buyers are flooding the sale market, pressed to finalize a deal before the federal government's $8,000 tax credit offer expires on Nov. 30.

Because mortgage approvals, residential inspections, and other steps in the buying process typically take about two months, buyers hoping to take advantage of the incentive will need to have a contract by the end of September.

The new flurry of activity now as house-hunters try to meet the deadline is triggering bidding wars and energizing the property market, which historically is slow at the end of summer. As a result, more homes are getting their full asking price.

Source: Chicago Tribune, Kathleen Lynn (08/14/09)

10 Cities Leading the Market Recovery

Here’s more evidence that housing is turning around. Forbes magazine identified 161 of the country’s largest metro areas where sales activity has increased compared to 2008, and where foreclosure sales as a percentage of total sales, are low.

The magazine considers these markets as on the road to recovery.
1. Miami-Ft. Lauderdale, Fla.
2. Lincoln, Neb.
3. Colorado Springs, Colo.
4. Salem, Ore.
5. San Luis Obispo, Calif.
6. Bremerton, Wash.
7. Denver, Colo.
8. Redding, Calif.
9. Santa Barbara, Calif.
10. San Jose, Calif.

Source: Forbes, Matt Woolsey (08/13/2009)

Fed: Recession Ending, Rates Left Alone

The Federal Reserve ended its policy-making meeting Wednesday with the declaration that the recession is ending and it would move toward more normal policies.

The Fed said, “Economic activity is leveling out.” It added that it expected inflation would remain “subdued for some time.”

The Fed said it will keep the short-term key interest rate near zero, but it will end its program to buy $300 billion worth of Treasury bonds by the end of October. Buying bonds was one of the Fed’s efforts to drive down the cost of home mortgages.

“In a way, it’s more of a thumbs-up than if they had said they were continuing the Treasury-buying,” said Edward McKelvey, an economist at Goldman Sachs. “They’re saying that things are going according to plan, and that the policy is O.K.”

Source: The New York Times, Edmund L. Andrews (08/12/2009)