Analysis: Tax Credit Adds 357,000 Buyers

A study estimates that 357,000 buyers have been motivated so far by the $8,000 First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit.

The study by Campbell Surveys, a division of Campbell Communications, calculated the figure by comparing the number of first-time homebuyers before and after the tax credit was instituted. The percentage of first-time buyers rose from 32 percent in January and February to 43 percent for the rest of the year – except July when the rate fell to 42 percent.

Campbell’s Research Director Thomas Popik pointed out that this survey mirrors the numbers calculated by the National Association of REALTORS® and those from Moody’s Economy.com.

The data supports legislative efforts in both the U.S. House and Senate to extend the tax credit.

Source: HousingWire.com, Austin Kilgore (09/22/2009)

Unemployed Home Owners May Get Assistance

The Obama administration has opened a dialogue with major lenders, economists, and government officials over the possibility of extending a financial lifeline to home owners who no longer can afford their mortgages because of job losses.

Possible strategies range from encouraging loan servicers to allow unemployed borrowers to skip some payments to providing grants or loans to temporarily cover mortgage obligations for home owners who become unemployed.

The talks have drawn praise from some real estate groups and other interests, who say that without aid to this subset of homeowners, the housing recovery could lose momentum.

Source: USA Today, Stephanie Armour (09/18/09)

Credit Reports Under Extra Scrutiny

Buyers who are under contract and hoping to close before Nov. 30 when the first-time home buyer credit expires should refrain from buying furniture and other things on credit.

Lenders are running credit checks prior to closing day and any increase in credit card or other debt can jeopardize the loan, says Lew Reich, an associate with Keller Williams Realty in Plano, Texas.

Reich warns buyers to even refrain from checking out a new large purchase because even an inquiry on a credit report could scare a lender.

Reich tells borrowers: “If someone’s squeaking by and, all of a sudden, they may be looking at increasing debt, the lenders will have a keener eye in looking at your loan,” he says.

“Don’t look until you’ve closed is basically what it comes down to. That’s the safest way. Stay out of the stores,” he adds.

Source: The Associated Press, Dawn Wotapka (09/18/2009)

Mortgage Rates Hold Steady

The average rate on 30-year, fixed mortgages held at 5.04 percent for the week ended Sept. 24—down from 6.09 percent a year ago, according to Freddie Mac.

Interest on 30-year, fixed loans has declined in the past three weeks, according to Freddie Mac chief economist Frank Nothaft, and the Mortgage Bankers Association reported a 13 percent increase in application volume last week.

Other rates performed as follows:

• 15-year fixed loans dipped for the week from 4.47 percent to 4.46 percent.
• Five-year hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages were flat at 4.51 percent.
• One-year ARMs fell from 4.58 percent to 4.52 percent.

Builder Confidence Is Building

Home builder confidence in the housing market rose in September for the third month in a row from 18 to 19, which is the highest level since May 2008, according to the monthly index calculated by the National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo.

The index hit a low of 8 in January. Any number below 50 is considered negative.

The NAHB credits the first-time home buyer tax credit for this summer’s market improvement, as well as low interest rates and home prices, says Joe Robson, NAHB’s chair.

The index also projects the strength of the market going forward. That measure fell one point in September to 29 because of the expiring tax credit. In a statement, Robson says, “Builders are concerned about what will keep the market moving once the credit is gone.”

Source: Bloomberg, Bob Willis (09/16/2009)

7 Tips for First-Time Home Buyers

A year after the financial collapse of 2008, the housing market is very different than it was before the foreclosure crisis.

Here are seven bits of wisdom from economists and financial planners for anyone contemplating a home purchase today:

• Old-fashioned basics are more important than ever. The safest way to purchase a home is to put down 20 percent on a fixed-rate, 30-year (or less) mortgage.
• Don’t become overconfident about income growth. Even though buyers in their 20s and 30s will likely see their incomes grow more quickly than previous generations, it is important to act sensibly when borrowing.
• Anyone contemplating adding children to the family should calculate whether they could live on one income because having both halves of a couple work may turn out to be impractical.
• Include a maintenance budget. Even new homes need upkeep and repairs.
• Buyers who can't afford their dream home now should opt for a starter home where they can save money each month for what they really want.
• Consider a property that can be expanded and improved down the road when money is available.
• No two buyers are the same, but they should all feel confident with the loan they enter into, no matter the size of the mortgage.

Please join us in supporting The Spring Creek Horse Rescue. This organization is dedicated to providing a second chance to abused, neglected, outgrown and unwanted equines of all breeds. Their emphasis is rehabilitation and adoption into loving forever homes with the goal of educating the public on better horse care, handling and nutrition.

Their current wish list items are:

• Bags of food, specifically Equine Senior, Equine Junior and Omalene 100
• Bags of shavings (no straw)
• Halters
• Long cotton lead ropes
• Salt licks
• Monetary donations

Donations are accepted at the following locations:

• The Wells Group--901 Main Avenue, Durango, CO  81301
• The Wells Group--581 E. Colorado Drive, Bayfield, CO  81122
• The Spring Creek Horse Rescue booth to be held at The Rocky Mountain Horse Expo on September 18-20 at the Sky Ute Event Center (fairgrounds) in Ignacio

Mortgage Applications Rise as Rates Fall

Mortgage rates declined last week, triggering a dramatic jump in mortgage applications.

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its weekly index of mortgage application volume rose 17 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis compared to the previous week. On an unadjusted basis, the index increased 15.8 percent and was up a whopping 64.5 percent compared to the same week a year ago.

Much of the increase was in refinances, with the refinance index increasing 22.5 percent, the biggest jump since March. The purchase index rose 9.5 percent, which was the largest gain since early April.

Mortgage rates were down across the board:

• 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 5.02 percent from 5.15 percent.
• 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.45 percent from 4.57 percent.
• 1-year ARMs decreased to 6.69 percent from 6.71 percent.

Many Experts Support Extending Tax Credit

Real estate professionals and home builders are pushing for an extension and an increase in tax incentives to encourage homebuying. Otherwise, they argue, that it is very likely that the current housing uptick will end on Dec. 1, when the tax credit does.

“The giddiness we see out there [about a recovery] is without merit," says Richard A. Smith, CEO of Realogy, which is the parent company of Century 21, ERA, Coldwell Banker, and Sotheby's International Realty.

Not everybody sees things Smith’s way. Michelle Meyer, an economist with Barclays Capital in New York, says that while the tax credit did contribute to an increase in sales, some of the improvement reflects an improving economy.

“Even if you say some of the gain is artificial, it's still true that we're seeing an increase in housing demand, and that shows fundamental strength," she says.

Mark M. Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com, ignores this chicken-or-egg argument and points to an analysis he did that suggests increasing the tax credit to $15,000 for all home owners through the end of next year would result in 675,000 additional home sales.

Source: BusinessWeek, Prashant Gopal (09/11/2009)

Fed Offers Some Positive Economic News

The Federal Reserve says it's “cautiously positive” about the economy in its widely watched regular report called the Beige Book.

Eleven of the Fed’s 12 regions called economic activity in the area are “stable,” “showing sings of stabilization,” or “firmed.”

Analysts said the economy is growing in the third quarter at an annual rate of 3 percent to 4 percent because businesses are spending more.

But the market for homes continues to be weak. In most areas, buyers are first timers and others purchasing the lowest-cost properties. Philadelphia was an exception: Sales there are up even for expensive homes.

In the commercial real estate market, sales were down, and construction was off in all parts of the country.

Source: The Associated Press, Jeannine Aversa (09/09/2009)

IRS Scrutinizes Mortgage Deductions

According to published reports, the Internal Revenue Service is more closely examining how taxpayers are reporting mortgage interest deductions.

The IRS is reportedly examining some returns with high deductions for mortgage interest and enforcing obscure rules that most home owners and many accountants could be unfamiliar with.

The calculations are very complex and rely on precise records that some home owners may have trouble producing

Experts advise home buyers who have borrowed more than $1 million in mortgages and home equity loans since 1987, the year deductibility limits were enacted, to consult a tax expert because the newest loan may not be tax deductible.

Source: Investment News Daily, Art Auerbach (08/25/2009)

SmartMoney

Published September 1, 2009

Common Sense by James B. Stewart

It's Time to Invest in Real Estate

Passing through the Fort Myers, Fla., airport a few weeks ago, I noticed people eagerly signing up for a free bus tour of foreclosed real estate — with all properties offering water views. During the ride to my hotel, the young driver volunteered that he’d just bought his first house, paying $65,000 for a foreclosed property in nearby Cape Coral that had last sold for over $250,000. He said he’d never expected to be able to buy anything on a driver’s salary, let alone something that nice.

Last week, Standard & Poor’s reported that its S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price index of real estate values increased¹ this past quarter over the first quarter of 2009, the first quarter-on-quarter increase in three years. Its index of 20 major cities also rose for the three months ended June 30 over the three months ended May 31, with only hard-hit Detroit and Las Vegas experiencing declines. The week before that, the National Association of Realtors reported that sales volume of existing homes was up 7.2% in July from June.

In short, the data suggest that real-estate prices hit a bottom some time during the second quarter, and have now begun to rise. There’s no way to be certain that this marks the end of the long, painful correction that followed the real-estate bubble, but clearly prices are no longer in free fall. That means if you’ve been sitting on the fence, it’s time to act.

Ordinarily I’d never try to time the real-estate market, but I can understand why buyers² have been cautious. Few want to buy in down markets, just as stock buyers avoid bear markets. And for most people, of course, buying a house is a much bigger decision than buying a stock. But with real estate prices nationally now down about 30% from their 2006 peak, and showing signs of turning up, the prices aren’t likely to go much lower. Every real-estate market is local, and so there may be a few exceptions. Overall, though, I can’t imagine a better time to buy than right now.

In addition to bargain prices³, buyers should find plenty of homes to choose from. The inventory of unsold homes was 4.09 million units in July, up 7.3% from June, according to the National Association of Realtors. And mortgage rates this week were at a two-month low of close to 5%, according to Zillow. Even the stricter appraisal process is working to the advantage of buyers. Appraisals are coming in far lower than most sellers have been expecting, forcing them to face the new reality of sharply lower prices. And with stricter standards, lenders aren’t going to let buyers borrow more than they can afford, which protects buyers and helps to keep prices down.

Unless you’re really prepared to accept the demands (and headaches) of being a landlord, I don’t recommend direct ownership of real estate as an investment. The days of buyers lining up to buy and flip Miami Beach and Las Vegas condos are mercifully gone. There are much easier ways to make money in real estate, such as real-estate investment trusts or buying shares in home builders and other housing-related businesses (such as Home Depot (HD⁴)). Historically, the mean rate of return on real estate has been around 3%, according to research from Yale economist Robert Shiller, who co-developed the Case-Shiller index. Shares in REITs and other stocks have often done much better.

But there’s a good reason home ownership has been such a central part of the American dream. It delivers security, pride of ownership, a sense of community and decent investment returns as a bonus. I felt glad for my driver in Florida. He represents the other side of the foreclosure crisis. For every hardship story, and no doubt there are many, others are realizing their dreams of home ownership and getting what may well turn out to be the deals of their lives.