Shadow Inventory Unlikely to Hurt Market

Nearly 5 million houses and condos, of which the mortgages are delinquent, will go through foreclosure over the next few years, a new study by John Burns Real Estate Consulting Inc. concludes.

This represents more than half of the 7.7 million households now behind on their mortgage payments. The situation is worst in Arizona, California, Florida, and Nevada. Burns calculates that there is an inventory equivalent to 27 months of sales in Orlando, 24 months in Miami, and 18 months in Las Vegas.

Consulting firm CEO John Burns says there is strong investor demand for these properties, so as long as employment continues to recover and interest rates remain moderate, these sales won’t have much impact on overall prices.

Source: The Wall Street Journal, James R. Hagerty (02/16/2010)

Program to Shore Up HAMP Announced

On Feb. 19, President Obama is expected to announce a $1.5 billion program to prevent foreclosures for unemployed and/or underwater home owners in the hard-hit states of California, Arizona, Nevada, Florida, and Michigan.

The program also will assist home owners prevented by second liens from getting loan modifications.

This is the second time the administration has tried to make the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) more effective.

Source: CNNMoney.com, Tami Luhby (02/19/2010)

Foreclosure Prevention Has Aided 116,000

The federal foreclosure prevention program has helped about 12 percent of borrowers who applied for help since the plans were announced a year ago, the Treasury Department says.

About 1 million borrowers initiated the application process, and as of January, about 116,000 home owners--12 percent--had their loans modified. But administration officials say another 76,000 applications have been approved and are awaiting signatures.

Another 830,500 home owners are currently in a trial modification review period during which banks make sure payments are feasible for the borrower and ensure the qualifications of the assistance program are met.

For those who qualify, the Home Affordable Modification Program brings monthly loan payments down to 31 percent of home owners' pre-tax income.

Nearly 60,500 people have been denied permanent modifications.

Source: CNNMoney, Tami Luhby (02/17/2010) and USA TODAY, Stephanie Armour (02/17/2010)

Foreclosure Rate Dips in January

U.S. foreclosures declined 10 percent in January compared to December, but were still up 15 percent year over year, foreclosure marketer RealtyTrac reported Thursday.

RealtyTrac CEO James Saccacio predicted an increase on the horizon: “January foreclosure numbers are exhibiting a pattern very similar to a year ago: a double-digit percentage jump in December foreclosure activity followed by a 10 percent drop in January, then a surge in foreclosures over the next few months.”

States with the top 10 foreclosure rates are:
1. Nevada
2. Arizona
3. California
4. Florida
5. Utah
6. Idaho
7. Michigan
8. Illinois
9. Oregon
10. Georgia

Six states account for nearly 60 percent of the national total: California, Florida, Arizona, Illinois and Michigan.

Source: RealtyTrac (02/11/2010)

Fourth Quarter Home Sales Surge 13.9%

Strong gains in existing-home sales were the predominant pattern in most states during the fourth quarter, with many more metro areas seeing prices rise from a year earlier, according to the latest survey by the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS®.

Sales increased from the third quarter in 48 states and the District of Columbia; 32 states even saw double-digit gains.

Year-over-year sales were higher in 49 states and D.C.; all but three states had double-digit annual increases.

Total state existing-home sales, including single-family and condo, jumped 13.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.03 million in the fourth quarter from 5.29 million in the third quarter, and are 27.2 percent above the 4.74 million-unit level in the fourth quarter of 2008.

Distressed property accounted for 32 percent of fourth quarter transactions, down from 37 percent a year earlier.

The Tax Credit Affect

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the first-time home buyer tax credit was the dominant factor.

"The surge in home sales was driven by buyers responding strongly to the tax credit combined with record low mortgage interest rates,” he said. “With inventory levels trending down over the past 18 months, we expect broadly balanced housing market conditions in much of the country by late spring with more areas showing higher prices.”

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate on a 30-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage fell to a record low 4.92 percent in the fourth quarter from 5.16 percent in the third quarter. It was 5.86 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008.

NAR President Vicki Cox Golder said near-term market conditions will remain favorable.

“Mortgage interest rates are expected to trend up later this year, but right now we have very good conditions with steadying home prices and favorable inventory in most areas, especially in the higher price ranges,” she said.

Golder said one of the biggest issues now is for repeat buyer who will have to accelerate their buying plans if they want the expanded tax credit. They have to have a contract by the end of April.

Repeat buyers do not have to sell their existing home, but all buyers must occupy the property they purchase as a primary residence to qualify for the tax credit. Buyers who have a contract in place by April 30, 2010, have until June 30, 2010, to finalize the transaction to get a credit of up to $8,000 for first-time buyers and $6,500 for repeat buyers.

Single-Family Home Prices

In the fourth quarter, 67 out of 151 metropolitan statistical areas reported higher median existing single-family home prices in comparison with the fourth quarter of 2008, including 16 with double-digit increases; one was unchanged and 84 metros had price declines. In the third quarter, only 30 MSAs showed annual price increases and 123 areas were down.

The national median existing single-family price was $172,900, which is 4.1 percent below the fourth quarter of 2008; the median is where half sold for more and half sold for less.

“This is the smallest price decline in over two years, with the most recent monthly data showing a broad stabilization in home prices,” Yun said. “Because buyers are taking on long-term fixed rate mortgages, avoiding adjustable-rate products, and trying to stay well within their budgets, the price recovery process appears durable."

Markets by Region

Northwest: Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 11.1 percent in the fourth quarter to a pace of 1.03 million and are 33.6 percent higher than a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the Northeast declined 5.6 percent to $234,900 in the fourth quarter from the same quarter in 2008, but with widely varying conditions.

“In the Northeast, markets with lower median prices that have avoided wide swings, such as Buffalo, are generally showing consistent price gains,” Yun said. “Even so, some of the higher cost areas are showing signs of stabilization, such as Nassau-Suffolk, N.Y., and Boston.”

Midwest: In the Midwest, existing-home sales jumped 14.5 percent in the fourth quarter to a pace of 1.38 million and are 29.9 percent above a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the Midwest rose 1.1 percent to $141,100 in the fourth quarter from the same period in 2008, with the region accounting for the majority of metro areas experiencing double-digit gains.

Yun said markets with high unemployment rates in Ohio and Michigan experienced large price swings. “Big price gains in many Midwestern areas are due to a more normal range of home sales in contrast with predominately foreclosed sales a year ago,” he said.

South: In the South, existing-home sales rose 13.8 percent in the fourth quarter to an annual rate of 2.23 million and are 28.2 percent higher than the fourth quarter of 2008. The median existing single-family home price in the South was $153,000 in the fourth quarter, down 2.4 percent from a year earlier.

“Affordable markets in the South that have relatively better local economies are seeing healthy price gains, such as Houston, Oklahoma City and Shreveport, La.,” Yun said.

West: Existing-home sales in the West jumped 16.2 percent in the fourth quarter to an annual rate of 1.38 million and are 18.2 percent above a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the West was $227,200 in the fourth quarter, which is 8.9 percent below the fourth quarter of 2008, but with many areas showing notable gains.

“Markets in the West such as San Francisco, San Jose, and Denver are showing double-digit price increases, and other markets like San Diego and Anaheim have begun to firm up,” Yun said.

A Closer Look at the Condo Market

Metro area condominium and cooperative prices – covering changes in 54 metro areas – showed the national median existing-condo price was $177,300 in the fourth quarter, down 4.8 percent from the fourth quarter of 2008.

Eleven metros showed increases in the median condo price from a year earlier and 43 areas had declines. In the third quarter, only four metros experienced annual price gains.

Source: NAR

4 Reasons to Sell Now

Selling a property in this tough market can seem like a challenge. Here are four factors that actually make this a good time to post a For-Sale sign.

1. Sell low and buy low. Because all property values are down, the loss on the property a home owner sells is really only a paper loss because the next property he buys also will be a bargain. If he buys smartly, when prices come back up in a few years, he’ll be in better shape.

2. Down-payment help is widely available. While nothing-down loans have disappeared, it is easy to find down-payment assistance for lower-income and first-time home buyers. Programs vary all over the country, but one good way to find them is to search online for “down-payment assistance programs” and the name of your region.

3. Your uncle has money to share. Besides the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit and the $6,500 move-up credit, there are an array of energy tax credits that can make home improvements pay off in cash.

4. Good help is available. Really talented real estate practitioners, contractors, and designers are available and eager for business.

Source: McClatchy Tribune, Kate Forgach (02/07/2010)

FHA Relaxes Anti-Flipping Rule

Beginning Feb. 1, the Federal Housing Administration will provide mortgage insurance for some purchases in which the seller bought the property and held it for fewer than 90 days.

The agency is changing what is known as the “anti-flipping rule” to speed up sales of renovated homes in communities with too many bank-owned and foreclosed homes, says FHA Commissioner David H. Stevens.

Waiving the 90-day rule will encourage private investors to buy vacant properties, fix them up, and quickly sell them to buyers who will be eligible to buy them using FHA financing.

FHA's change "is going to be absolutely terrific" for first-time home buyers hoping to take advantage of the tax credit, says Bobby Taylor, an associate with Coldwell Banker Mountain West Real Estate in Salem, Ore.

Source: Washington Post (01/30/2010)

Pending Home Sales Stabilize

Pending home sales have leveled from a market swing driven by response to the home buyer tax credit, according to the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in December, increased 1 percent to 96.6 from 95.6 in November, and remains 10.9 percent above December 2008 when it was 87.1.

In November, the monthly index had fallen by 16.4 percent from surging activity in preceding months.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says it’s important to recognize how the tax credit is skewing market data.

“There are easily understood swings in contract activity as buyers respond to a tax credit that was expiring and was then extended and expanded,” he says. “These swings are masking the underlying trend, which is a broad improvement over year-ago levels."

December activity was the fifth highest monthly tally in two years.

The Tax Credit Impact

Buyers who have a contract in place to purchase a primary residence by April 30, 2010, have until June 30, 2010, to finalize the transaction to qualify for a tax credit of up to $8,000 for first-time buyers and $6,500 for repeat buyers.

Yun projects the extended and expanded tax credit will encourage 2.4 million households to take the credit in 2010.

“While new-home sales will remain low due to a lack of construction, existing-home sales are projected to rise to around 5.6 million in 2010,” Yun says. Last year there were 5.16 million existing-home sales.

He added that one of the greatest benefits of rising sales will be firming home prices.

“For several months now we’ve been seeing stabilization in all of the home price measures as inventory is pulled down,” Yun says. “As a result, the housing wealth for many middle class families has begun to stabilize.”

Regional Data

Here's a breakdown by region for the PHSI:

• Northeast: rose 2.3 percent to 76.1 in December and is 14.9 percent higher than December 2008.
• Midwest: increased 5.2 percent to 86.9 and is 8.7 percent above a year ago.
• South: rose 2.2 percent to an index of 98.4, and are 5.5 percent higher than December 2008.
• West: fell 3.8 percent to 119.9 but is 18.6 percent above a year ago.

—NAR

10 Home Features Buyers Want

Home designers and builders speaking at the recent International Builders Show in Las Vegas say that buyers are seeking cost-effective features and rejecting things that don’t have lasting value.

“It's all about family togetherness – casual living, entertaining and flexible spaces," says Carol Lavender, president of the Lavender Design Group in San Antonio.

Paul Cardis, CEO of Avid Ratings, which conducts an annual survey of buyer preferences, identified these must-haves in new homes:

1. Large kitchens with islands
2. Energy efficiency, including energy-efficient appliances, super insulation, and high-efficiency windows.
3. Home offices
4. Main-floor master suite
5. Outdoor living space
6. Ceiling fans
7. Soaking tub in the master suite and/or an oversize shower with a seating area
8. Stone and brick exteriors rather than stucco or vinyl
9. Community walking paths and playgrounds
10. Two-car garages, but three-car garages are even more desirable

Source: MarketWatch, Steve Kerch (01/30/2010)

Housing Components Don't Last Forever

Many aspects of a home last little more than a decade. Home buyers should be especially vigilant about inspecting these household components because they have a relatively short lifespan, says the National Association of Home Builders.

• Aluminum roof coating: 3-7 years
• Enameled steel sinks: 5-7 years
• Security systems: 5-10 years
• Carpet: 8-10 years
• Smoke detectors: fewer than 10 years
• Faucets: 10-15 years
• Garage door openers:10-15 years
• Air conditioners: 10-15 years
• Asphalt: 12-15 years
• Termite-proofing during construction: 12 years

Existing-Home Sales Down, but Prices Rise

Existing-home sales fell as expected in December after first-time buyers rushed to complete deals during the months leading up to the original November deadline for the tax credit. However, prices rose from December 2008 and annual sales improved in 2009, according to the National Association of REALTORS^®.

Existing-home sales—including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops—fell 16.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.45 million units in December from 6.54 million in November, but remain 15 percent above the 4.74 million-unit level in December 2008.

There were approximately 5,156,000 existing-home sales in 2009, which was 4.9 percent higher than the 4,913,000 transactions recorded in 2008. It was the first annual sales gain since 2005.

Tax Credit Creates Swing in Market

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says there were no surprises in the data.

“It’s significant that home sales remain above year-ago levels, but the market is going through a period of swings driven by the tax credit,” he said. “We’ll likely have another surge in the spring as home buyers take advantage of the extended and expanded tax credit. By early summer the overall market should benefit from more balanced inventory, and sales are on track to rise again in 2010."

However, Yun says, the job market remains a concern and could dampen the housing recovery. "Job creation is key to a continued recovery in the second half of the year,” he says.

An NAR practitioner survey shows first-time buyers purchased 43 percent of homes in December, down from 51 percent in November. Repeat buyers rose to 42 percent of transactions in December from 37 percent in November; the remaining sales were to investors.

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $178,300 in December, which is 1.5 percent higher than December 2008.

“The median price rose because of an increased number of mid- to upper-priced homes in the sales mix,” Yun says. It was the first year-over-year gain in median price since August 2007.

Falling Inventories

NAR President Vicki Cox Golder said market conditions are challenging in some areas.

“There’s a shortage of lower-priced homes for sale in much of the country, resulting in multiple bids in some areas,” she says. “Raw unsold inventory has been trending down. As the market heats up again this spring, buyers may need to be prepared to move quickly on a particular home."

Total housing inventory at the end of December fell 6.6 percent to 3.29 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 7.2-month supply at the current sales pace. That is an increase from a 6.5-month supply in November.

Raw unsold inventory is 11.1 percent below a year ago, is at the lowest level since March 2006, and is 28.2 percent below the record of 4.58 million in July 2008.

Distressed homes, which accounted for 32 percent of sales last month, continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes in the same area.

For all of 2009, the median price was $173,500, down 12.4 percent from $198,100 in 2008. Distressed homes accounted for 36 percent of total sales last year.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 4.93 percent in December from 4.88 percent in November; the rate was 5.29 percent in December 2008.

Single-Family Home, Condo Sales Dip

Single-family home sales fell 16.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.79 million in December from a pace of 5.76 million in November. Sales are 12.7 percent above the 4.25 million level in December 2008. For all of 2009, single-family sales rose 5 percent to 4,566,000.

The median existing single-family home price was $177,500 in December, which is 1.4 percent above a year ago. For all last year, the median price for a single-family home was $173,200, down 11.9 percent from 2008.

Meanwhile, existing condominium and co-op sales fell 15.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 660,000 in December from 780,000 in November. Sales are 34.7 percent higher than the 490,000-unit pace a year ago. For all of 2009, condo sales rose 4.8 percent to 590,000 units.

The median existing condo price was $183,700 in December, up 1 percent from December 2008. For all of last year, the median condo price was $176,100, which is 16.1 percent below 2008.

Regional Breakdown

Here are existing-home sales figures by region:

• Northeast: sales dropped 19.5 percent to an annual level of 910,000 in December but are 21.3 percent above a year ago. Median price: $241,700, up 3.2 percent from December 2008.
• Midwest: sales fell 25.8 percent in December to a level of 1.15 million but are 8.5 percent higher than December 2008. Median price: $143,200, which is 1.8 percent above a year ago.
• South: sales dropped 16.3 percent to an annual pace of 2.01 million in December but are 15.5 percent above December 2008. Median price: $152,000, down 1 percent from a year ago.
• West: sales declined 4.8 percent to an annual rate of 1.38 million in December but are 15 percent higher than a year ago. Median price: $236,000, up 2.7 percent from December 2008.

— NAR

10 Inexpensive Ways to Wow Buyers

Now is the time for home owners contemplating a spring sale to spruce up their properties in anticipation of what Mike Larson of Weiss Research calls a potentially vibrant home-selling season.

"If you have been beating your head against a wall, this is going to feel a lot better,” he says.

Here are 10 cheap ways to make a property more attractive to shoppers:

1. Improve first impressions. Touch up the paint on the front door and other areas that buyers see first.
2. Clean up the landscaping. Trim the hedges and trees and plant some annuals in the flowerbeds.
3. Paint the interior. A coat of light yellow or cream with contrasting white woodwork looks fresh and clean.
4. Refurbish the floors. Buff the hardwoods. Install new carpets – or at least get them professionally cleaned.
5. Take care of the big problems. If the house needs a roof or the front stoop is crumbling, get them fixed.
6. Buy warranties. Putting appliances under warranty gives homebuyers a secure feeling.
7. Improve energy efficiency. New windows or improved insulation tells a potential buyer the seller is on top of things plus they come with tax benefits.
8. Replace light fixtures. Updated fixtures, especially at the entrance way and in the foyer, create a good first impression.
9. Buy a stove. Home owners whose kitchen isn’t top of the line can jazz it up for a few hundred dollars by buying a new stove, which gives the room a fresh feel.
10. Tidy up the bathrooms. Get rid of mildew, replace caulking, and replace stained sinks.