Analysts Say Rates Should Remain Low

Projections about where credit rates will go in the next year vary widely, but most mortgage analysts think the effect of the Federal Reserve’s move away from the market won’t be dramatic.

Analysts at Credit Suisse and FTN Financial Capital Markets predict that mortgage rates will stay between 5 percent and 5.25 percent for the rest of the year. Moody's Economy.com projects about 5.7 percent, and Barclays Capital says 6 percent.

“There is a lot of private money on the sidelines waiting to buy mortgage securities once the Fed stops gobbling most of them up,” says Laurie Goodman, senior managing director at mortgage-bond trader Amherst Securities Group.

Source: The Wall Street Journal, James R. Hagerty (03/13/2010)

Foreclosure Inventory Is Increasing

The inventory of foreclosed homes that banks are sitting on is rising, threatening to push home prices down further in some parts of the country.

Analysts at Barclays Capital estimated that banks and mortgage investors held about 645,800 foreclosed homes in January, up 4.6 percent from December. That is down significantly from the peak of 845,000 in November 2008.

States with the largest number of foreclosures are Florida, Arizona, Nevada, California, and Michigan.

Source: The Wall Street Journal, James R. Hagerty (03/19/2010)

Housing Experts Say Real Estate is Recovering

Some of the nation’s top economists believe the housing market has turned and better days are on the way for the housing industry.

Increases in jobs, credit, and affordable homes will overcome impediments such as rising interest rates, and the expiration of the Federal stimulus program to push the housing market toward recovery, says Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist for Barclays Capital.

“I would bet even odds that we’re at a bottom and that we’re going to see improvement in the coming months,” says Karl Case, co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index and a professor of economics at Wellesley College.

“The underlying trend is turning positive,” says Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Source: Bloomberg, Kathleen M. Howley and Rich Miller (03/15/2010)

Federal Program to Encourage Short Sales

Beginning April 5, the Obama administration will encourage delinquent borrowers to avoid foreclosure and instead give up their homes in short sales by streamlining the process.

The program will offer a cash payment to the home owner, as well as to the servicer and second-lien holder; and protect borrowers from future lender lawsuits for the unpaid mortgage balance.

To curtail fraud, lenders will have to consult real estate practitioners to assess home value and minimum acceptable offer; they then must accept any offer that is equal to or higher than that.

Source: The New York Times, David Streitfeld (03/08/10)

Winter Weather Hurts Pending Home Sales

Pending home sales are down and additional declines are expected from abnormal weather conditions, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in January, fell 7.6 percent to 90.4 from an upwardly revised 97.8 in December, but remains 12.3 percent higher than January 2009, when it was 80.5.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said weather is likely to impact housing data. “January pending sales, though still higher than one year ago, remain much lower than expected given that a large number of potential buyers are eligible for the expanded home buyer tax credit. Moreover, the abnormally severe and prolonged winter weather, which affected large regions of the U.S., hampered shopping activity in February,” he said.

As such, abnormal swings are expected in housing data. “We will see weak near-term sales followed by a likely surge of existing-home sales in April, May, and June,” Yun said. “The real question is what happens in the second half of the year. If there is sufficient job creation, housing can become self-sustaining with stable to modestly rising home prices because inventory has been trending downward.”

Here’s a look at pending home sales numbers by region:

• Northeast: Pending home sales fell 8.7 percent to 71.3 in January, but are 20.5 percent higher than January 2009.
• Midwest: The index dropped 8.9 percent to 81.2 but is 11.8 percent above a year ago.
• South: Pending home sales slipped 2.1 percent to an index of 98.1, but the index is 18.0 percent higher than January 2009.
• West: The index dropped 13.2 percent to 102.9 but is 1.4 percent above a year ago.

— NAR

It's Getting Easier to Get a Jumbo Loan

The jumbo loan market is starting to thaw, making it easier for move-up buyers to borrow.

Rates on jumbo loans of more than $729,750 in highest-priced markets rose during the financial crisis and lending standards tightened to the point where borrowers couldn’t refinance or get a new loan.

In the last couple of weeks, the average interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate jumbo fell to 5.79 percent, a five-year low, according to rate tracker Informa Research Services. Rates are even lower on hybrid adjustables.

The availability of these loans suggests that banks are feeling more confident since Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Housing Administration do not insure them.

Source: Los Angeles Times, E. Scott Reckard (02/28/2010)

Buyers Who Wait May Lose a Lot

Potential home buyers who delay have a lot to lose.

First-time home buyer and move-up tax credits worth $8,000 and $6,500, respectively, expire April 30. Buyers who qualify get a dollar-for-dollar reduction in taxes or a cash payment if they don’t pay enough taxes to cover the credit.

Other factors that should spur buyers:

Low mortgage rates. If the Federal Reserve stops buying mortgage-backed securities at the end of March, 30-year rates will almost certainly rise to more than 6 percent.

Rising prices. About 30 percent of markets are already experiencing price increases. Prices are falling in 12 percent of markets, says Fiserv (but that only helps if you want to live there).

Source: Money Magazine, Beth Braverman (03/02/2010)

Buyers Should Consider Prepaying Mortgage

Should home buyers with sufficient cash pay down their mortgages or put the extra money in investments or savings?

Financial experts say the choice depends on the home buyer's employment prospects, current savings, and investable assets.

If life looks a little uncertain, they advise putting the money in a safe place, like a savings account. But for people with more stable financial situations, paying down the mortgage can be a great investment, often providing a better return than a savings account.

Source: Washington Post, Ilyce R. Glink and Samuel J. Tamkin (02/27/2010)

La Plata County Real Estate Stats at a Glance

All Residential Data (as of 1/31/10)                                                     

Total Active Listings: 904    Last Year: 1006                                                  

Avg Days on Market: 240    Last Year: 164

Total Number of Sales: 38   Last Year: 23

Avg Sales Price: $474,655   Last Year: $398,579

Overall appreciation or depreciation  19.1%

 If we can assist you with your real estate needs, please give us a call. We are here to help. Please call Durango Home Specialist at 800/955-0259--ask for Robin Williams or Teresa Stephenson.

Fed: Interest Rates to Remain Low

Investors breathed a sigh of relief Wednesday when Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke told Congress that interest rates are likely to remain low for an extended period. The economy, he said, "still requires support for recovery."

Investors see these low rates as a boon to a recovery of employment and business.

Bernanke’s announcement also took the edge off the news Wednesday that housing sales hit a new low in January.

"Even though nothing he said was particularly new, it was just enough to calm the ruffled feathers that were out there," said Jim McDonald, chief investment strategist at Northern Trust in Chicago.

Source: Associated Press, Tim Paradis (02/24/2010)

IRS Clarifies What's Needed to Claim Tax Credit

The Internal Revenue Service has clarified which documentation taxpayers need to submit to claim the first-time and move-up homebuyer tax credit.

While the IRS is still requiring the filing of Form 5405, it is not demanding that all parties’ signatures be on the HUD-1 settlement document in areas where requiring both the buyer and the seller to sign the document isn’t common.

The IRS clarification says: "In areas where signatures are not required on the settlement document, the IRS has clarified that it will accept a settlement statement if it is completed and valid according to local law. … The IRS encourages those buyers to sign the settlement statement prior to attaching it to the tax return.”

For repeat buyers, the IRS is seeking documentation that home buyers have lived in the previous property for a consecutive five of the past eight years. Proof can include property tax records, home owner insurance records, or mortgage interest statements.

Source: Washington Post (02/20/2010)